“France’s economy is at risk of falling into recession”

According to a survey published the day before yesterday by Bloomberg, economists estimate at 80% the probability that the euro zone enters into recession in the next twelve months. In the same survey, more than half of the economists consulted consider that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise its rates by 0.75 percentage points at its October meeting. This is the second increase of this magnitude. But some countries will do better than others in this context of recession. We think France will be one of the most resilient countries among the eurozone countries in 2023. Click to download the issue macrochartmania this week, which brings together more than 100 charts used to follow the most recent macroeconomic and stock market developments. All data comes from Macrobond and is updated weekly.

In mid-September, the French Economy Minister, Bruno Le Maire, denied the risk of a recession in France in 2023. The French government forecasts a GDP growth rate of 2.5% this year (the previous forecast was 2, 7%). This makes sense given the most recent data. The GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down and the government now expects a growth rate of 1%, down from 1.3% previously.

We believe this is a very optimistic forecast. When we look at the INSEE business climate indicator and its main components, the (…)

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