Hello Recession Denyers, It’s Time To Consider Negative Q3 Of GDP – MishTalk

GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed.  Chart by Misch.

GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed. Chart by Misch.

Latest estimate: 1.3 percent — August 1, 2022

There are only a few days left in the economic data for the third quarter. But please pay attention to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Already going in the wrong direction.

The GDPNow model estimates real GDP growth (a seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the third quarter of 2022 at 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. Following this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business, a construction spending report from the Institute for Supply Management and the U.S. Census Bureau, third-quarter real personal consumption expenditure growth and real gross private household investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent to 1.5 percent, respectively. and -2.1 percent.

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