BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that total non-farm payroll employment increased by 528,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.5 percent.
Job growth was broad, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and vocational services, and health care. Both total non-farm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels.
Here are the details from Monthly bls employment report,
- Non-Farm Payroll: +372,000 to 151,980,000 – installation survey
- Civil non-institutional population: +177,000 to 264,012,000
- Civilian Labor Force: -63,000 to 163,960,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.1% – Household Survey
- employment: +179,000 to 158,290,000, household survey
- Unemployment: -242,000 to 5,670,000- Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 3.5% – Household Survey
- Not in the labor force: +239,000 to 100,051,000 – Household Survey
- U-6 Unemployment: No Change 6.7% – Household Survey
- The change in total non-farm payroll employment for May increased from 2,000 to +384,000 to +386,000 . was done
- The change for June was increased from 26,000 to +372,000 to +398,000.
- With these amendments, employment in May and June combined is 28,000 more than before.
- Non-farm payroll: 250,000 expected versus 528,000 actual
- Unemployment Rate: 3.6% Expected vs. 3.5% Actual
- Construction Payroll: 15,000 Expected vs. 30,000 Actual
- Hourly Earnings: +0.3% Expected vs. 0.5% Actual
Estimate above from Bloomberg Econode.
Payrolls were much stronger than expected. But there is a continuous huge gap between jobs and employment.
Change in non-farm payroll
For the third month, we see strength in backward sectors: leisure and hospitality, and healthcare.
Changes in non-farm payrolls from February 2020
Despite recent gains, leisure and hospitality employment is down 1.2 million compared to February 2020.
part time jobs
- involuntary part time work: +303,000 to 3,924,000
- Voluntary part-time work: +501,000 to 21,103,000
- total full time work: -71,000 to 132,577,000
- Total part time work: +384,000 to 25,824,000
The above numbers never total correctly. I list them report wise.
However, it is worth noting that full-time employment declined in the second month.
In March, the BLS said full-time employment was 132,718,000. Today it says 132,577,00. Again we see a huge difference between the two reports.
Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted
Non-Farm Salary and Employment Level
- Jobs has finally made up for all the losses.
- 576,000 reduction in employment
- The numbers do not reflect the growing population or the type of work that has been recovered.
- The red and blue dotted lines show the still significant impact of COVID on the economy.
Both demographics and the impact of Covid are at play. Neither jobs nor employment will ever return to the pre-Covid trendline.
hours and wages
average weekly hours All private workforce numbers remained unchanged at 34.6 hours. Average weekly hours for all private service-providing employees were unchanged at 33.5 hours. Manufacturers’ average weekly hours remained unchanged at 40.4 hours.
Average hourly earnings of all non-farm workers increased by $0.15 to $32.27. Year-over-year, wages increased from $30.67 to $32.27. That is, an increase of 5.2 percent.
Average hourly earnings of production and supervisory employees increased from $0.11 to $27.57. Year-over-year, wages increased from $25.96 to $27.57. That is, an increase of 6.2 percent.
Despite the benefits, wages have not kept up with inflation.
birth death model
Since January 2014, I left birth/death model Chart from this report.
For those following the numbers, I offer this caution: Do not subtract the reported birth-death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
The model is wildly wrong at the turn but otherwise it means very little. It is also heavily modified and thus useless.
alternative solutions to unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can meet Better An estimate of what the unemployment rate really is.
scroll to continue
The official unemployment rate is 3.5%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but have left, all the people with part-time jobs who want a full-time job, all the people who have quit because their unemployment benefits have ended. , e.t.c. ., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is on the last line labeled U-6.
U-6 is very high at 6.7%. Both numbers would still be very high, were it not for the millions out of the labor force over the years.
Some of those out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out due to the fear of Kovid. And still others took advantage of the strong stock market and retired early.
The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, frustrated workers, and taking children back home because they can’t find jobs.
changing employment dynamics
COVID-19 had a massive impact on the labor force. Some have lost their jobs, millions of others now work from home.
The stimulus provided incentives not to work and some of those workers are now returning to the labor markets.
As of January 2022, there were 22 million employees aged 60 and over. Millions of people will soon retire, adding to the pressure on hiring.
strength is relative
It is important to keep the number of jobs in proper perspective.
In household surveys, if you work only 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
In the Household Survey, if you work three part-time jobs, 12 hours each, the BLS considers you a full-time employee.
In a payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS tries to address this, but they don’t duplicate Social Security numbers. The potential for double counting of jobs in payroll surveys is huge.
household survey vs payroll survey
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline job number, usually released on the first Friday of each month. It is based on employer reporting.
The Household Survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
If you work an hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and you fail to find one, you are not considered unemployed, but you are out of the labor force.
looking for job openings Or in Monster or Wanted ads doesn’t count as “job seekers”. You need an actual interview or send a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially promote full-time employment, and artificially increase the number of payroll jobs reported every month.
recovery not complete
The recovery has been rapid, but it was also the deepest on record. Some job losses are permanent.
There is still a huge need for jobs in comfort and hospitality.
Once again we see the difference between jobs and employment. Past differences in the direction of jobs have been resolved. One of these sets would likely not be.
- March Employment Level: 158,458,000.
- April Employment Level: 158,105,000.
- May Employment Level: 158,426,000.
- June Employment Level: 158,111,000.
- July Employment Level: 158,290,000.
That five months isn’t going down anywhere else. The employment change since March is -168,000.
Summary since March
- Employment -168,000
- Jobs +1,680,000
The number of houses is undoubtedly noisy, but now a difference of five months has come to the fore.
In expanding economies, discrepancies tend to resolve higher. At the turn, the anomalies tend towards the reducing resolver.
I suspect that the labor turnover and retirement have seriously distorted payroll and that at least some of that strength will be taken away.
Regardless, I’m calling BS. At least one set of numbers is seriously wrong.
Expect a long but shallow recession with minimal job losses
Given the pressure of hiring and boomer retirement, Expect a long but shallow recession with minimal job losses
The stock market is another issue. For discussion, please visit Artificial Wealth Vs GDP: Why Will Earnings And Stock Market Lose?
While I expect that the unemployment rate will not rise much in this recession, it is another matter to have the unemployment rate fall and jobs to increase by millions.
Origin of this post mishtalk.com
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