In Q2, Tesla’s EV market share in Europe halved (NASDAQ:TSLA)

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Tesla’s European sales halved in the second quarter despite opening its first European factory in March

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A peculiar aspect of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) quarterly reporting that it is one of the very few automakers that do not Provide a meaningful regional breakdown of your automotive unit sales. This would, at a minimum, mean breaking down into these geographic regions:

  • Europe

  • North America

  • Asia / China

However, just because Tesla doesn’t provide this data in its quarterly reporting doesn’t mean it isn’t available elsewhere — with a slight lag. Almost a month later, all European data has been fully assembled.

As a result, we have just received the final and absolute numbers for the month of June for Europe as a whole – and therefore the full second quarter as well. Why is this of particular relevance now, you may ask?

Here’s why:

Elon Musk breaks out dance moves as he opens new Tesla factory in Germany

Yep, Tesla opened its factory in Germany on March 22, spring-loaded to a massive boost in Tesla’s second-quarter sales in Europe, after its EV market share dropped dramatically — two-thirds! – From 2019 to 2021:

Europe

EV total

Tesla

% share

2019

558015

110132

20%

2020

1364967

98924

7%

2021

2270263

169709

7%

data source: 13% of new car sales in Europe Electric (21% of plugins)

The date of Tesla’s German factory opening — March 22 — meant it was almost entirely lined up to coincide with Tesla’s monster Q2 sales numbers in Europe. After all, this is Tesla’s first factory in Europe, and it will no longer rely as much on cars exported from California, where Tesla manufactures both the Model 3 and Model Y, and has the potential to export to Europe. This March 22 factory launch was the clear rationale for Tesla’s sales in Europe in the June quarter.

Tesla’s European EV market share in Q2 . fell from 11% to 5%

While Tesla’s European EV market share increased dramatically in the second quarter as a result of the brand-new factory opening near Berlin on March 22 (see link above), the opposite happened:

Europe

EV total

Tesla

% share

2022 Q1

566487

59502

1 1%

2022 Q2

562431

26154

5%

Data source: 13% of new car sales in Europe Electric (21% plugins)

Oh! Tesla’s market share fell in half (slightly more) in the second quarter. It’s not what you might have expected, given that Tesla’s first European factory opened on March 22.

What about BEV-only sales?

A common objection to Tesla’s talking about EV market share is the definition of the EV itself. The definition of EV is BEV (battery-electric vehicle) + PHEV (plug-in hybrid) = EV. Clearly Tesla’s market share in BEVs is higher than that of EVs as Tesla does not manufacture any PHEVs, unlike some of its competitors.

Still, the difference in definition between EV and BEV matters more in terms of Tesla’s absolute level of market share than its direction. If PHEV and BEV sales numbers move similarly in the same direction, the change in market share for Tesla will be the same regardless of which EV definition is chosen. Only the absolute level will be different, whether or not PHEV is included.

However, the sales of PHEV and BEV do not run equally. They’ve gone relatively similar for most of recent years, but to satisfy those who doubt that the slight change in the relative sales trajectory between those two versions of the EV has had any material effect on the statistical inference, I present these BEV-only sales facts:

Europe

bev

Tesla

% share

2022 Q1

332985

59502

18%

2022 Q2

324112

26154

8%

Data source: 13% of new car sales in Europe Electric (21% plugins)

Look, I told you so: the absolute numbers are higher, but the statistical direction remains roughly the same. Tesla’s European BEV-only market share fell in half (slightly more) from Q1 2022 to the second quarter. In other words, Tesla’s massive drop in market share was roughly the same whether the BEV-only definition was chosen, or the EV definition.

the numbers are worse than ever

Tesla’s Q2 market share decline in Europe is the kind of faceplant you would have expected if you were told that Tesla “closed” its only European factory on March 22 — not opening it on March 22. This was the quarter when Tesla’s European sales, which were set to go to the moon next quarter, would not be cut in half.

Tesla’s European sales also fell by half in absolute numbers

One objection to this analysis would be this potentially mitigating circumstance: “It’s okay to drop market share by more than 50% if the overall market is growing by more than 100%, because what’s really important is that absolute sales numbers increase.” has been.” The problem with this is that it didn’t even happen in Q2.

Tesla’s unit sales in Europe fell 56% in Q2 compared to Q1. In absolute numbers, European unit sales fell from 59,502 units in Q1 to 26,154 in Q2. In other words, while the European EV market fell “only” 8%, Tesla sales fell by a whopping 56%. So its market share has halved.

Tesla’s EV market share fell into oblivion in Europe

With Tesla’s EV market share now less than 5% in Europe and rapidly falling, do investors still seriously believe that Tesla is the only company building new EV manufacturing capacity in Europe in 2022 and 2023? Tesla gets massive press for the opening of its only EV factory (on March 22, 2022), but other automakers launch new EV production lines inside new and old factories without nearly the same fanfare.

So investors may be surprised to see this figure. Despite Tesla’s Berlin factory launching just before the start of last quarter, those coming quarters could have even more surprises.

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