MLB Odds: Luis Castillo, How Do Other Big Trades Affect World Series Odds?

by Edward Agros
Fox Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The professor has a stern warning for today’s class: Before we start our own trading promotions, it is important to take a deep breath before looking at the betting price on the trading time frame.

Take last season: The Dodgers acquired Max Schaezer and Tree Turner, but didn’t win the pennant, even though both played exceptionally well. The Giants picked up Kris Bryant, and even though the ball club won 107 games, they failed to advance past the National League Division Series.

However, there were also successes. The Braves needed their mid-season takeover in George Soler to win it all (.300/.391/.800 in the World Series). The Astros made little splash for their bullpen, but in September and October, they Still ranked ninth in strikeouts in nine innings (9.38) in MLB and eighth in xFIP (4.23). My main point is to always take propaganda with a grain of salt.

So now that you’ve completed your breathing exercises, let’s break down the latest trades, their impact on betting odds and if it’s worth investing in for that squad’s championship chances.

P louis castle For Mariners +3000 on FOX bet (bet $10 to win $310,

As we’ve discussed on this space, there is no team I was more interested in studying on trading deadlines. Mariners,

Sure enough, they’re the first to make an earth-shattering move, achieving starting pitcher Luis Castillo. Cincinnati For some brilliant prospects.

From a speculative perspective, the move squeezed a lot of value out of Seattle in the futures markets. For winning the American League, M’s odds were reduced from +2000 to +1400, and they went from +4000 to +3000 for winning the World Series.

Castillo throws fireballs, as his fastball average is about 97 mph. There might not be much movement, but with an opposing batting average of .124 and a strike rate of 45.5%, it doesn’t need to be. Oddly enough, he has had more successful seasons, such as in 2020 with an FIP of 2.65 and more than 11 strikes per nine innings. Either way, he’s a stud that will help Mariners massively down the stretch.

There aren’t many starting weapons available on the market, and Seattle needs one, so it feels like a win for both teams. And given that the Mariners’ playoff drought has lasted longer than any North American team in the men’s four major games, it’s a move they had to make with a high probability of success.

LF Andrew Benintendi Yankees on Fox Bet for +370 (Bet $10 to win $47,

The Bronx Bombers have eloped with the AL East and are now the big favorites to win the pennant. But the move has improved the Yankees’ odds of winning the World Series, from second-best to the Dodgers at +400 with the lowest at +350.

Above average wins by baseball reference chart position groups, and the Yankees rank 10th in left field, their second-worst ranking before shortstop. Now, New York goes from Joy Gallo, who is second in strike rate (38.1%) with at least 250 plate appearances, to Andrew Benintendi with the 20th lowest rate (13.3%). He doesn’t have much power, but he knows how to base with .387 OBP. In short, the Yankees got massively better with this trade.

P Josh Haider Padres at +2200 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win $230,

Relief pitching isn’t the biggest need for San Diego at the deadline, as their bullpen Collective fielding ranked seventh in independent pitching, But, bringing someone of Josh Hader’s caliber close to a ball club is something the Padres simply can’t pass up, as the Padres have enough chances to send them all the way to Milwaukee. The Dodgers have such a huge lead in the NL West that their chances of winning the pennant for the Padres have not changed (+1000 on Fox Bet). World Series futures also don’t budge for San Diego, as they currently sit at +2200.

One reason for the consistency could also be that Haider has been unpredictable this season. In each season from 2018–2021, his expected batting average largely ranked in the 99th percentile of all pitchers. However, his home runs are allowed per nine innings this season. This is the highest in any season (1.85),

Overall, some may force hitters to swing and miss more often, and some may throw faster, so Haider is likely to dominate. Perhaps more importantly, there are many more possibilities to be used as currency in San Diego, so they may not have traded. Keep an eye out for the Padres to potentially go after Juan Soto or Wilson Contreras. If SD lands another big fish, look for their World Series odds to advance significantly.

Edward Agros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist, and an assistant professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions inspired him to create a cold brew. Edward previously worked in local television, notably covering Rangers, Cowboys and high school football at the Fox affiliate in Dallas. follow him TeaVitter @EdWithSports.

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