Orioles Head Over Heart, Prefer Astros to Trade Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini
Tom Horak – USA TODAY SPORTS

Astro on Monday launched 1B/DH . shook his first base position while receiving Trey Mancini Orioles. From as part of a three-way trade that also included rays, Mancini, the longest-serving player on Baltimore’s roster, had a solid, if not spectacular, season, .268/.347/.404 with 10 homers and 1.2 battles in 92 games, most of his game. Time was divided this season. An occasional appearance between first base and designated hitter and in a corner outfield role. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, although there is a $10 million mutual option. Astros sent outfielder to take down Mancini Joseph Siri for rays and pitchers Chais McDermott For O, Tampa Shipping With Pitcher Seth Johnson for Baltimore and Jaden Murray for Houston.

To see this trade more easily, let’s break it down into three separate transactions.

Baltimore Orioles acquire pitchers Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott for 1B/DH Trey Mancini

From a PR point of view, throwing some sharp elbows locally at the Orioles would likely happen. Baltimore is having its first marginally playoff-relevant season in a long time, and Mancini has been with the team throughout the process. As its veteran Reconstruction survivor, he played a similar role that Freddy Freeman done for the brave while they went through a painful renewal of their own. His battle with colon cancer, was diagnosed on his 28th birthdayAnd later a spectacular comeback after surgery and six months of chemotherapy made him more beloved in the city.

Originally, the on-field case involved a very “now” approach to the team, keeping Mancini and letting him run at the end of the season. This leaves the Orioles a bit vulnerable over the next two months, but it’s only a big loss. If you look at the results in a very binary fashion, Baltimore is with Mancini in the wild card race and out of it without him. Once you go beyond that, the calculation of whether this kind of trading is a good idea turns out to be very different.

First, with Mancini on the team, here are the current Zips estimates for the AL East. it includes frankie montaso Trade for the Yankees, which is slightly advantageous for the Orioles. Why? The Orioles were never catching the Yankees and only had one set of three games left; The latter still has 25 games remaining against the Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox, six games against the Mariners and four against the Twins.

Zips Projected Standing – AL East

crew woo Took GB PCT div% Welcome% play off% WS Win%
new York Yankees 102 60 , .630 97.6% 2.4% 100.0% 12.4%
Toronto Blue Jays 91 71 1 1 .562 2.3% 91.5% 93.9% 6.2%
Tampa Bay Rays 84 78 18 .519 0.1% 48.7% 48.8% 1.2%
Boston Red Sox 82 80 20 .506 0.0% 24.3% 24.3% 0.8%
Baltimore Orioles 78 84 24 .481 0.0% 5.5% 5.5% 0.1%

Baltimore has always had an uphill struggle; While some parts of the team have arrived, the rotation from top to bottom remains very thin. With Mancini, the Zips projected the Orioles with a 5.5% chance of making the playoffs.

When I compared Mancini to Freeman, it was only in the philosophical sense, as he is a league-average player rather than the best player in the league. if we use Kyle Stowers As his replacement, the O cost, on average, one-third of the winnings relative to Mancini, per zip. This reduces the team’s estimated playoff chances by about 0.7 percentage points to 4.8%. According to ZiPS’s calculations, the Mancini/Stowers swap has about a 1-in-140 chance of the team’s playoff position turning one way or another at the end of the season.

But what if the Orioles are even better than the gypsies thought? Prior to the trade ZiPS offered their roster strength as .455, but what if I instead state that it is actually a .500 team? The trade still changes the final playoff result only once out of 45 occasions.

What the Orioles got in return is what makes this trade compelling to me. Johnson was ranked number 58 in the ZiPS Top 100 prior to the season, and both ZiPS and my colleague Eric Longhagen Ranked him as Tampa’s second best pitching prospect. Obviously, he’s too risky because he’s having Tommy John surgery, but he still represents real talent that could make an impact on the major league roster at some point, not just a 27-year-old middle reliever in A-ball . And while Johnson will have to be added to the 40-man roster if he is injured, I think he deserves to lose a spot. Baltimore also needs pitching deeper in the minors, and McDermott, whom Eric recently hailed as a 40 fv prospect, is actually on the upside if his order issues can be sorted out.

The Orioles got valid chances for two months of the average hitter. To me, it’s worth revising the 2022 playoff dream a bit.

Houston Astros acquire 1B/DH Trey Mancini and P Jaden Murray for P Chase McDermott and OF Jose Siri

Houston’s playoff position is a sure thing, so the move is all about having a strong roster for the season afterward. yuli guriel He has repeatedly defied both estimates and Father Time during his race in Houston, but it looks like his luck has finally changed for the worse. With him hitting only .243/.293/.392 this season, first base was arguably the Astros’ biggest hole, and they fill it with a valid starter. Mancini could see time for DH and other players in the outfield to rest, but the team is mostly set on the corners and DH, so he will play most of the time first.

Replacing Gurrill’s at-bat, the Zips see the Astros as the only team in baseball with roster strength in excess of a .600 winning percentage. There are other players in Houston who can center Siri’s play time, and Murray is closer to competing in the majors than McDermott.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire Jose Siri for P Seth Johnson and P Jaden Murray

The Orioles have good outfield depth, so Siri is not an ideal fit for the team; By engaging Rays in a three-way trade, O gets two pitchers for Mancini. Tampa naturally isn’t doing this for the good of her heart, but the season-end injury kevin kirmeyer The depth of the team at the center is tested. Brett Phillips Has been the main achiever of playing time, but he’s struggled aggressively this season, hitting a pitcher-esque .147/.225/.250. Siri provides a good glove – he’s on +6 OAA runs in CF in just 353.2 innings in the Majors – and while he hasn’t been exciting with the bat so far with the parent club, he had a breakout season in the minors in 2021, Offering some hope of a better triple-slash line. Rays is betting that Siri will be a short-term upgrade over the just-dfed Philips, a bet I think will pay off. There’s also a chance that Siri will prove to be a worthy successor to Kiermaier.

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