Shohei Ohtani Business? Three reasons why the Angels star will move before 2023, and the biggest reason they won’t

one of The Biggest Questions Going into Major League Baseball’s Business Deadline (Tuesday, August 2 at 6 p.m. ET) What’s in store for the future? Los Angeles Angels And the two-pronged sensation Shohey Ohtani. Rumors surfaced last week that the Angels are hearing inquiries on Ohtanik, although not in such a way that there is likely to be a trade before Tuesday. Still, the Angels’ willingness to listen to proposals is a significant development, and a sign that he may be moving on this off-season, isn’t it? Yes and no.

Ask any honest front-office person and they’ll admit that every desirable player discusses this at some point, including the golden goose types who aren’t on the block. That’s how the industry works, and that’s how teams gather information about a player’s business value and their list of potential contenders.

Acknowledging that background information, Ohtani’s availability is the first acknowledgment that the Angels have made from the ensuing inflection point. Ohtani is scheduled to reach free agency after the next season, leaving Los Angeles with precious little time to convince him to stay on since then, either by signing a long-term extension beforehand or a free- The agent is returning after joining the tour.

CBS Sports has asked officials along with other teams over the past few days for their thoughts on the Ohtani situation: how likely they are to be favorable for the Angels on Opening Day of 2023, what factors may be working in favor of a trade. and what factors are working in opposition. We’ve split those conversations into two parts: the first highlights three reasons why Ohtani may be traded before next season, and the second gives a bigger reason why he’s in town at least until the next deadline. Could stay.

Let’s start with three reasons the Angels might trade Ohtani ahead of next season.

Why can Angels trade Ohtani?

1. A Huge Payday Is Coming
As mentioned in the introduction, Ohtani will qualify for free agency after the next season. We don’t have the crystal ball, but we feel confident as of writing that he’ll be one of the most sought-after free agents of all time, barring a devastating injury. He is, at present, a 28 year old career with 137 OPS+ and 131 ERA+. Too many players have been reported to be without par; Ohtani confirmed the claim. There is no one alike in Major or Minor who can consistently hit and pitch at his level.

There is no doubt that all those interested in his services to Ohtani will be ordinary big spenders. Only a loose understanding of the relationship between supply and demand is necessary to conclude that he has a lot of lucrative contract offers moving towards him. Factor in his proximity to entering the open market – a time taken of about 16 months – and his chances of agreeing to an extension seem remote; There isn’t a long or rocky road between it and the open market.

The threat of being in competition with the high rollers of all leagues should worry the Angels as there is no guarantee they will pay him the most. Keep in mind, the Angels have never spent as much as $200 million on Opening Day payroll. They already have more than $90 million committed to the three players (Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Raicel Iglesias) for the foreseeable future. With Ohtani earning $30 million a season — a conservative estimate — that would mean only 15 percent of his active roster would have more than 60 percent of his normal payroll. From this perspective, it seems like a volatile situation… and it’s an underestimate.

In short: the Angels are unlikely to convince Ohtani to sign before they hit free agency, and they doubt him to be the highest bidder. Maybe having a different factor other than money working in their favor would have further reason for optimism about the prospect of keeping them in the long run. Alas, the alienating factor may make him more inclined to leave, which increases the chances of a trade.

2. Ohtani wants to play for the winner
It is fair to write that the majority of players – as is their right – are willing to take the highest offer. Ohtani is the white crow, in this respect, because he is Previously demonstrated that the dollar is not its primary motivator, He took less money to get into the majors as a 23-year-old, when he could have waited a few years and signed for significantly more. If a rough check is certain, its decision is more likely to be informed by something else, such as which team is best positioned to win a title. Heck, Ohtani has indicated as much in the past year.

“I really like the team. I love the fans. I like the atmosphere of the team,” He told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times last September, “But, more than that, I want to win. That’s the biggest thing for me. I’ll leave it there.”

Even though the Angels can offer Ohtani a ton of money – and as we established above, it may not. majority of Money – it is unclear whether they can provide him with a realistic route to the World Series ring. If they can, they certainly haven’t been proven as much. Ohtani has been a member of the Angels roster since 2018. They haven’t finished at .500 or better in that time, and that’s not likely to change this year; Rather, they are on the lowest percentage game winning pace in their big-league careers. Oh.

The Angels have done themselves no favors by embracing continued business in the dugout. Ohtani is already suited for four managers, and if he is in town next spring that number will increase to five. The only fixture with the Angels, then, has been the dire underperformance stemming from an inability to gather the depth, pitching talent and luck needed to contend for a playoff spot.

Maybe general manager Perry Minassian can turn the tide this winter. The problem is that he will be on his third attempt, and neither of the first two have suggested that he is up to the task of a quick turnaround. Having Trout and Ohtani, among others, means there’s a chance that the Minesian gets it right. There is reason enough to doubt it.

Therefore, the Angels’ chances of winning enough games to convince Ohtani to pay the most money or to sign him beyond next season are in doubt. This leaves one more reason for the Angels to consider taking a move between now and next Inauguration Day.

3. Long term interest
It seems silly to write that they should consider trading Ohtani if ​​the Angels want to win soon, but there’s something to it.

Say that everything above is correct. That they are unlikely to outlive all for Ohtani, and even if he did, he may decide that he will charge less money to play for a certain contender. This would leave the Angels only to compensate for a draft pick when he leaves. We’ll put it mildly by writing that Angels can use a lot more help than a draft pick if they’re going to dig this hole before the end of the trout’s prime. (He will turn 31 this week.)

The reality of the situation is straightforward for the Angels. Ohtani’s trading value would continue to drop steadily each day between now and next winter, with a major drop on the next opening day, when an acquiring team would be unable to replenish its own draft pick. It would be the Angels’ behavior, if they wanted to get the maximum return, to outline their vision of the future – and how it would differ without Ohtani on the roster – as soon as possible.

Trading any kind of superstar, especially a historical talent, is no easy decision. In one such instance, where the Angels have been unable to roost Ohtani and Trout for years, it is nothing short of an admission of organizational failure. And that, according to the executives we spoke to, is why most of them believe Ohtani has a better than 50 percent chance of opening the next season as a member of the Angels — because owner Arte Moreno wouldn’t have it any other way. ,

Why won’t the Angels trade Ohtani?

1. The Art of Dealing
Club owner Arte Moreno is seen as the biggest obstacle to a potential Ohtani trade. It doesn’t matter that the Angels get an unbeatable offer, and it doesn’t matter that Ohtani is a known goner at the end of the season; If Moreno doesn’t sign it, it won’t happen.

It’s easy to understand why Moreno would back down. He has spent a lot of money on Angels over the years without getting much in return. The Angels have replaced players, managers and general managers without much success. Moreno has remained steadfast. At some point, having a steady face of failure takes a toll on one’s ego. Trading Ohtani would be a confession that he and his brainwashed faith could never figure out a way to make a winner, despite two generations of gifted talent.

A talent appraiser who spoke to CBS Sports speculated that, based on Moreno’s history and reputation, they could envision a scenario where Minassian’s job security is tied to Ohtani’s – if Moreno linked to Minassian Ohtani. bringing business concepts, so he can sign his own pink slip. There is no evidence that this is actually the case, but it speaks to how Moreno is viewed by other organizations.

When it comes to Ohtani’s business, the biggest challenge for the Angels front office is not finding a good offer or justifying the deal itself; Maybe it’s getting their owner to accept the reality of the situation and live with the blow.

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